Introduction / Peak Oil

The United States is quickly burning through the second half of the world's total oil supply. Our slice of world oil consumption totals 24% and almost matches the combined oil demand of China and the EU. This distilled prehistoric sunlight has powered our society into a century of ever-expanding prosperity in monetary terms. From the time we are born until we die oil is almost always in contact with us. Hydrocarbons distilled during refinement are processed into synthetic fibers, resins, plastics, chemicals, paints, additives, lubricants, tires, roads, and fuels. Traditional food uses 10 calories of oil energy for every calorie you eat. We have literally wrapped ourselves in oil's warm embrace. With so many other uses isn't there the possibility a future humanity may be astonished we simply burned half of it while knowing better? Yet as prices have risen Humvees and SUVs are still commonplace as they are still percieved as safer and have subsidies for purchase.
Almost every member of the current administration has involvement in the oil industry from the obvious Bush to Cheny (Halliburton somehow had total control over Iraqi oil pumping with no other bids on the contract) Condoleezza Rice had a oil tanker named after her while she worked as a Chevron board member I could go on but if I hit the horse again it could go past dead and turn fossilized. In 1999 Cheney acknowledged at a London Institute of Petroleum Autumn lunch that "by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously in control of about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer greet oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greeter access there, progress continues to be slow." Our country has since attacked and occupied on false pretenses the fourth largest reserve of oil in the entire world. At this point I would venture that the idea of us going over to help the Iraqi people in any way is quite suspect as we allowed the country to be looted down to rebar being stripped from concrete while guarding the oil pipeline. Obviously our current administration views this as a zero-sum energy policy but do not deviate from traditional energy sources. The average American soldier in Iraq has three times the energy needs of the average American.
Tar sands = Sand held together with tar residue.

Shell announced recently that they expect we will have hit the limit of crude production by 2015. It will still pump but we will get less and less each year (US oil domestic production peaked in 1970). All further expansion of oil will be through tar sands (2 tons of abrasive crap + energy + hydrogen cracking = 1/2 to 1 barrel of crude) tar shale (oil in rock which requires more energy input into the shale than the oil produced will yield) or other extreme production methods like hot liquefied carbon dioxide stripping of old wells at pressures of 3600psi or the extremely dirty coal gassification to shore supplies. Our straws are already starting to slurp as we dig down to depths of 50K feet.

I am an engineer in the chemical industry. As someone in the industry I know that when an oil industry executive hears "renewable energy" they think three things:
A)Damn, I'll have to buy capital equipment to do that.
B)I still have substantial investments in oil infrastructure.
C)There is still 1 trillion barrels left that I can sell and demand is stronger than ever.

C) is what probably blinds companies like Exxon Mobil with greed and causes them to fund the most over-represented fractional percent of the scientific community.

While this is not enough to make you worry we will need to use our current energy sources to create an entire new infrastructure without straining our planets ability to recover from the obvious damage climate change will inflict. Climate change is accelerating faster than anyone predicted. By the end of my lifetime I could see half of Florida underwater if immediate and fundamental changes are not made to the way we produce and consume energy.
The United States is far behind on secure energy implementation. The only "alternative" that stretches as far as the eye can see is the red herring of corn ethanol. The sad thing is we have all known this day would come for decades and twiddled our thumbs down to nubs. Now the game of catch up begins. If we (as in everyone) put a substantial effort to this end we could emerge with minimal bruising of the national and world ego. At this point it means regulation and a complete energy policy overhaul. We have the models for how to do it. Some countries are 70% renewable-supplied and they did it in less than a decade. Our way of thinking needs to change with regard to energy and water usage. To that end I have found an excellent model to represent what we face as humanity. The model is Rapa Nui better known as Easter Island.
Easter Island is an excellent illustration of exactly the situation mankind faces today. When the Polynesians landed on the island sweet potatoes, chicken, and rats were the only animals they brought that could survive in the different climate. Although Easter Island is grassy today it was not when it was first inhabited. There were birds, lizards, and many types of trees that thrived on the small island of about 65 sq miles. Resources were plentiful as the culture of Rapa Nui began to prosper. The trees which were necessary for fuel, transportation (boats), food (porpoise fishing from boats), housing, and worship were abundant. This was essentially the state of things during the 20th Century as oil was plentiful.
The Maoi statues littered on the island facing inward are thought to represent ancestor worship or possibly power and wealth of a faction. In any case the carving of so many huge statues was a large devotion of resources. Trees were cut for rope and logs to roll the Maoi on. At their peak the inhabitants of Rapa Nui were estimated to be 20,000. By 1600 most of the Island had become deforested and boats could no longer be utilized. The birds, lizards, and rats of the island were hunted to extinction. Cannibalism is evident in trash pits from this time. The evidence from radiocarbon dating of pollen in soil samples paints a picture of a rush to collapse. After the fall the population was significantly smaller and had few resources. The Maoi of Easter Island represent the collapse of a civilization from peak lumber. If peak oil happens before we are ready what would happen to the US economy? A recession? A depression? A collapse? I would personally not like to know through empirical findings. We have twiddled our thumbs to nubs.